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The first objective of this activity is to find predictive cause-effect linkages between current Biodiversity indicators and the EFAs spatial configuration and connectivity metrics. These predictive functions are needed to performe the simulations of Ecosystems Services flow according to different EFAs configurations and types. For this purpose, we will fit Generalized Mixed-Models (GLMM) using Biological indicators as response variables and EFAs connectivity, spatial configurations and habitat quality as independent variables. The location of the distinct study area will be used as random effects while the EFA type will be used as fixed effect, using the data obtained in activities 1, 3 and 4.
Then, we will test different climate and management scenarios according to changes in the irrigated valleys to assess alterations in water budget, and to foreseen water and nutrient availability for the ecosystem and human activities. Three major forms of changes will act upon the irrigated valley: (1) the surface variation of cropland and types of crops, (2) the global changes ongoing, especially temperature and rainfall, and (3) the agriculture practices. We will simulate the present situation and the mid-century situation e.g. 2060, for the following storylines: three types of the most favorable patch configurations indicated by the results from Activities 1 and 3; two possibilities of crop evolution (discussed and decided by the Farmers of the study areas in Activity 7); and two pathways for possible technical evolution of irrigation techniques and practices (also discussed with the Farmers and the External Committee).
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